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    "bodyText": "Pollen and spring rainfall improve regional olive yield forecasts\nElena Vega, Marcos Ríos and Lucía Prado\nDepartment of Agroecology, University of Sierra Alta, Spain\nCorresponding author: elena.vega@example.org\nAbstract\nOlive production varies strongly among years, complicating farm planning and market decisions. We evaluated a fictional regional forecasting workflow that combines airborne pollen, spring rainfall, temperature and an alternate-bearing indicator. Models were trained with annual observations from a Mediterranean agricultural region and assessed by leave-one-year-out validation. Adding pollen and memory signals reduced absolute error relative to a weather-only baseline, while the contribution of rainfall was largest in seasons with water limitation. These synthetic results illustrate how a transparent ensemble could support earlier operational forecasts without replacing field observations or expert review.\nKeywords: olive; pollen; rainfall; forecasting; alternate bearing\n1. Introduction\nReliable crop forecasts can reduce uncertainty in agricultural planning. Airborne pollen has been proposed as an early indicator of reproductive intensity (López et al., 2022), while rainfall can constrain fruit development.\nVega (2021) showed that spring water availability may modify the relationship between flowering and final yield.\n2. Materials and methods\nWe created a synthetic annual series for one Mediterranean region. Candidate predictors represented pollen abundance, rainfall, temperature and alternate bearing. No real farms, people or production records were used.\nModels were assessed with leave-one-year-out validation. The analysis reported mean absolute error and the coefficient of determination.\n3. Results\nThe ensemble containing pollen and alternate bearing produced the lowest synthetic prediction error. The weather-only model showed larger residuals in dry years.\n4. Discussion\nThe fictional experiment suggests that biological and meteorological signals can provide complementary information. The analysis is illustrative and should not be interpreted as evidence for a real forecasting service.\n5. Conclusions\nA transparent ensemble can organize complementary signals before harvest, provided that uncertainty and data provenance remain explicit.\nFunding\nThis fictional study received no external funding.\nDeclaration of competing interest\nThe authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have influenced the work.\nCRediT author statement\nElena Vega: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing. Marcos Ríos: Data curation, Visualization. Lucía Prado: Validation, Writing – review and editing.\nReferences\nLópez, M., Costa, R., 2022. Pollen indicators and olive yield. Fictional Journal of Agronomy 12, 10–20.\nVega, E., 2021. Rainfall effects on flowering. Fictional Agricultural Systems 8, 1–9.",
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        "title": "JournalReady generic profile 1.0.0",
        "url": "https://www.chapalab.com/",
        "language": "en",
        "checkedAt": "2026-07-29",
        "note": {
          "es": "Regla interna orientativa; debe contrastarse con la guía oficial de la revista.",
          "en": "Internal advisory rule; verify it against the journal’s official guide."
        }
      },
      "measured": false,
      "expected": "advisory"
    },
    {
      "id": "references.crosscheck",
      "category": "references",
      "status": "correct",
      "title": {
        "es": "Cruce básico autor–año",
        "en": "Basic author–year cross-check"
      },
      "message": {
        "es": "Las 2 claves autor–año detectadas tienen una entrada bibliográfica compatible. El análisis no valida el formato ni todos los autores.",
        "en": "All 2 detected author–year keys have a compatible reference entry. The analysis does not validate formatting or every author."
      },
      "measured": "2/2",
      "expected": "all detected citation keys matched"
    }
  ],
  "summary": {
    "correct": 12,
    "doubtful": 1,
    "incorrect": 0,
    "not_evaluable": 2,
    "total": 15
  },
  "disclaimer": {
    "es": "JournalReady comprueba señales formales mediante reglas locales. No garantiza aceptación, cobertura completa ni validez científica; confirma siempre la guía oficial y el sistema de envío.",
    "en": "JournalReady checks formal signals using local rules. It does not guarantee acceptance, complete coverage, or scientific validity; always confirm the official guide and submission system."
  },
  "exampleProvenance": {
    "kind": "synthetic-demonstration",
    "manuscriptUrl": "/demo/demo-manuscript.docx",
    "manuscriptSha256": "d532152d495f5d528eb74a3d75ac20e74d425b52efa4436264cd812e80d83214",
    "archiveUrl": "/demo/demo-files.zip",
    "archiveSha256": "7ee7000d5b3c32ad368b1a840ed5ed3b51d3c4b1093e8c3ec842aa0a537abbdf",
    "profile": "generic-research-article@1.0.0",
    "note": "Fictional research, people and references. Run the generic profile without importing a journal guide."
  }
}